Gerrymandering has little impact nationwide, studies suggest

A series of studies from 2022 to 2025 by liberal researchers indicates gerrymandering has minimal impact on U.S. House elections, challenging claims from Democrats this week about partisan advantages.

The findings, drawn from studies by the Brookings Institution, the Associated Press, Vox, Yale’s Institution for Social and Policy Studies and the Washington Post, highlight how recent House elections reflect a neutral national map.

The findings summarized below by The Heartlander show neither Democrats nor Republicans have gained a decisive advantage through redistricting.

Since the 2010 GOP “wave” election, Democrats have been consistently pointing to gerrymandering, rather than doubtful policies such as Obamacare and green energy investments, as a reason why they were crushed in that election.

But as state Democrats flee Texas to stop Republican Gov. Greg Abbott’s redistricting efforts, the studies suggest cries of gerrymandering from liberals this week aren’t based in reality.

The Brookings Institution’s 2023 report set the tone, noting that redistricting efforts improved representation, favoring neither party, a significant finding by a liberal think tank.

Using a proportional allocation based on the two-party vote, the study found recent election outcomes closely aligned with vote shares.

In the 2022 midterms, Republicans received 50.6% of the vote and secured 222 seats, just two fewer than the proportional estimate of 224 Brookings set as fair.

Similar patterns were observed in 2018 and 2020.

The findings suggested that claims by Democrats of structural bias in House elections were at least outdated, said the think tank.

Similarly, in 2023, the Associated Press (AP) reported 2022 redistricting resulted in the most politically balanced maps in decades, according to experts they selected.

Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Virginia saw significant shifts, with Democrats gaining seats under court-adopted gerrymandered maps, as well as seats under Michigan’s independent commission. ​

In 2022, Democrats gained extra seats in eight states, while Republicans gained in seven, said the AP.

Still, Illinois Democrats expanded their congressional majority through greatly gerrymandered maps, sparking criticism, noted the wire service.

Vox’s 2022 think piece reported much the same results.

The 2021-2022 redistricting cycle saw Democrats and Republicans both intensify efforts to secure political advantages, said Vox.

Democrats gained ground in states like New York, Illinois, and Nevada, creating maps favoring their party, while Republicans preserved strongholds in Texas and Ohio. ​

Democrats’ map-fudging offset Republican gains, noted Vox, concluding that Democrats “to love the gerrymander.”

Yale’s 2023 study further corroborated these findings, detecting partisan bias in maps drawn by both parties but concluding that their effects largely canceled each other out over nationwide elections.

The study estimated that gerrymandering gave Republicans just a two-seat advantage in the House, closely aligning with previous studies.

The Washington Post’s 2025 analysis finally tied these trends all together, reporting that the House’s Republican advantage had nearly vanished by 2024.

The authors measured the “efficiency gap,” calculating votes wasted on losing candidates or winning candidates above the threshold for victory, to determine elections were more efficient now.

Redistricting’s impact on U.S. House elections has diminished over time, with efforts creating balanced maps and proportional representation, favoring neither party significantly, the studies found.